Moscow, September 01, 2018 — Business Systems Consult. Consulting Company BSC prepared monthly review of Russian Banking System as of July, 2018, which covers the general tendencies and presents market shares of major participants. Detailed report is available upon request. Russian version is here.

The tendencies in Russian banking system can be summarised as follows.

1. Balance value grew by rub 3tn, exceeding rub 84tn (according to bsc me­thodology). The share of ba­lan­ce value denominated in Russian Roubles in total growth is rub 2,4tn (growth by 4%); foreign currency balances dec­re­a­sed by usd 15bn (–5%), it’s growth in rub equivalent is a result of rub devaluation by 8,88% (from 57,2649 to 62,3497 for the re­porting period).

2. Growth in individual and corporate deposits and current ac­counts nominated n Russian Roubles reflected in increase in corporate loans (mainly, Sberbank, + 0,8%) and consumer lo­ans. As a result, the term structure of the balance sheet did not change.

3. Shrinking in foreign currency deposit base (corporate de­po­sits fell by 6,9%, individual deposits fell by 3,5%) tran­s­fer­red to corporate lending decrease (mainly, short-term len­ding).

4. Individual deposits grew uniformly in the market. Banks from 6—20 grouping increased their market share at the ac­co­unt of Otkrytie group.

5.         We still do not see any signals of retail lending de­ce­le­ra­ti­on. However, to prevent the situation of 2015 fre­eze in the mar­ket, we recommend to model expected losses for the ti­me horizon of at least 3 years. The modelling should co­ver lo­an risk maturation, credit allowance ma­tu­ra­ti­on, mac­ro­eco­nomic stress tests and stress tests of credit qu­ality dec­re­a­se. Despite macroeconomic conditions remain po­si­ti­ve for the retail lending, the situation may change.